FEB. 2, 2004

POLITICS
The religious divide between political parties

A much-quoted poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press shows that the "God gap" between the Republican and Democratic parties is greater than ever, with frequent worshippers backing the GOP and secular voters siding with the Democrats. What's behind the numbers?

Most experts have noted that the poll reflects the rise of evangelical Christians in Republican Party politics at a time when many Democratic leaders have shied from talking about religion. But scholars say the poll also illuminate two important truths about religion and politics: who is "religious" depends a great deal upon how you define "religiosity." And religious practice in American has changed and diversified so much in the last 20 years that measuring who is "religious" is no simple task.

The poll measured religious practice in two ways. First, by weekly "church" attendance (see Section 2), and second, through an attempt to measure religiosity in the answers to three questions Pew has been asking for 16 years - about prayer, the existence of God and belief in a "judgment day" (see Section 8). According to their findings, attendance at religious services is one of the best predictors of how a voter will vote on Election Day - those who attend once a week or more are most likely to vote Republican, while those who rarely or never attend services are likely to vote Democrat.

Corwin Smidt, executive director of the Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics, says religious people are more likely to support the GOP, no matter whether religiosity is measured by beliefs, behavior or belonging. But other scholars, such as Kenneth Wald, political science professor at the University of Florida, say the poll's three-question measure of religiosity is distinctly Protestant model. He says that research that considers other factors, such as involvement in religious organizations, produces very different patterns.

Wald and other scholars note exceptions to the poll, including African-Americans, who tend to have very high church attendance rates while voting mostly Democratic, and many Jews. Others take exception to the poll questions' seeming exclusion of non-Christians, many of whom do not believe in a literal "judgment day."

The shifting relationship between religion and politics is an important one, and polls are a good measure over time. Yet experts caution that faith itself is hard to measure, particularly when beliefs and practices vary widely among Christians as well as people of other religions.

Why it Matters
Religious belief both unites and divides people, particularly when its expression helps shape the government policies that affect all Americans.

Questions for reporters
As 2004 campaigns unfold on the local, state and national level, reporters can mine interesting stories by talking to voters, candidates, politics and religion experts and clergy about these questions:
• Ask Democratic voters and candidates if they consider themselves religious and ask what they think about the poll results. Ask Republicans the same thing.
• What do people say about recent comments by Democratic hopeful Howard Dean and, separately, the Anti-Defamation League on the necessity of keeping politics and religion apart?
• Can people leave their religious beliefs outside the voting booth? Why should or shouldn't they? Can elected leaders separate their religious beliefs and their work? What factors shape the very different answers people give to these questions?
• What makes people "religious"? Do people think what makes someone "religious" has changed over time? How do people who express their beliefs within institutional religion and outside of it say their beliefs shape their political views?
• Find a Democratic voter and Republican voter who reflect the poll's average findings and talk to them about their civic engagement and how their beliefs shape their politics. Then find a Democratic and Republican voter whose religious practice is quite different from the poll's findings and ask the same questions.
• Look up exit poll findings on religion in each state and see what they reveal about voters by party and region.

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Click the map for interview sources in your state and region

National sources

• Carl Raschke is chairman of the department of religious studies at the University of Denver in Colorado. He says the poll confirms the generalization that traditional Christians tend to vote Republican. African-American voters, he says, are the major exception because they tend to have high church attendance but vote Democrat. Contact 303-871-3206, craschke@du.edu.
• Clyde Wilcox is a professor of government at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., who teaches and writes about religion and politics. He says different definitions of religiosity could bring different results to the same poll. He says that among African-Americans, "private religiosity" (reading the Bible and praying daily) leads to less political participation, whereas public religiosity (attending church) leads to an increase in voting rates. Contact 202-687-5273, wilcoxc@georgetown.edu.
• Corwin Smidt is the executive director of the Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, Mich., and has been involved in national surveys on religion and politics in the last three presidential elections. In 2005, he will direct a seminar on survey research and American religious groups. Contact 616-526-6233, smid@calvin.edu.
• John C. Green is the director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron in Ohio. He says that American religiosity is complex and that political parties should take voters' religious preferences and habits as seriously as they take race, gender, income and education. Contact 330-972-5182, green@uakron.edu.
• Kenneth Wald is a professor of political science and the director of Jewish studies at the University of Florida in Gainesville. He says Americans are not nearly as polarized as this poll would indicate. His own work shows that changing the definition of religiosity leads to different results. He also says relying on self-reporting of worship attendance - as this poll does - leads to higher reported rates of attendance than actually occur. Contact 352-392-0262 ext. 267, kenwald@polisci.ufl.edu.
• Abe Foxman is the national director of the Anti-Defamation League, which has called on politicians to keep religion out of their campaigns. Contact through Myrna Shinbaum, director of media relations, 212-885-7755, adlmedia@adl.org.
• John Paget is founder of Christians for Dean, a web site that describes how the Democratic candidate's politics align with Christian beliefs. Contact websmaster@christiansfordean.info.
• Matthew Brooks is executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition and can comment on a recent poll by the American Jewish Committee that indicates between 24 percent and 31 percent of American Jews intend to vote for Bush in November. The coalition has chapters throughout the United States. Contact 202-638-6688, press@rjchq.org.
• Larry Harvey is the founder and webmaster of Public Christian, a web site dedicated to the interplay between religion and American politics. Contact 308-345-4596, lgh3@hotmail.com or lgh@publicchristian.com.

Background

• Read the results of a November 2003 Pew poll that shows religion's increasing importance in American public life, including in the voting booth.
• Read the results of a Zogby International poll that shows 57 percent of voters in "red" states are Protestants, compared with 37 percent of voters in "blue" states. Similarly, 51 percent of "red" state voters said they attend religious services once a week or more, while 46 percent of voters in "blue" states said they attend only on holidays, rarely or never.
• Read a Jan. 7, 2004, opinion piece by Nicholas Kristof in The New York Times describing the "God gulf" between Republicans and Democrats.
• Read the results of a July 2003 Pew Forum poll that found relatively few Americans are concerned by politicians' religious rhetoric.
• Read a transcript of the Pew Forum's October 2002 conference, "Religion on the Stump: Politics and Faith in America."
• Read the results of a poll conducted in November and December 2003 by the American Jewish Committee which showed that between 59 percent and 71 percent of American Jews would vote Democratic in the upcoming presidential election.