FEB. 18, 2004
UPDATED MAY 3, 2004

KENNEDY TO KERRY
Kerry, Catholics and the White House

Sen. John Kerry is the first Catholic at the top of a major party ticket since John F. Kennedy, another Massachusetts senator and the first and only Catholic to be elected to the White House. Religion was already destined to play an enormous role in the 2004 campaign, given President Bush's prominent evangelical Christian faith and the heated conflicts over gay marriage, abortion, treatment of Islam and the state of Israel.

Kerry's ascendance opens a new arena in the debate over religion and politics. As a Catholic and supporter of abortion rights, Kerry has come under fire from bishops, including his own, who said he should not take communion, the central Catholic sacrament. Despite such opposition from the leaders of his church, Kerry reflects the positions of most American Catholics, and he could well win the popular Catholic vote while losing the endorsement of the hierarchy.

For these and other reasons, experts say Kerry's candidacy illuminates as much about the state of Catholicism - and American religion - as it does about the state of politics. This edition of ReligionLink provides sources and insights into both areas and the complex interplay between them.

Jump to:
National sources
Regional sources
A history of Catholics and the presidency
Polls and surveys
Background

Why it matters
There are 65 million Catholics in the United States, constituting 27 percent of the electorate, and they vote at a slightly higher rate than Protestants. Since 1972, no candidate has won the popular vote without winning the Catholic vote. (In 2000, Al Gore won the Catholic vote, 50 percent to 47 percent, and the popular vote by a narrower margin, but lost the White House to George Bush in the Electoral College.) Moreover, Catholics are concentrated in the states with the most electoral votes - California, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan, for example. With Kerry, a practicing Catholic, as the Democratic nominee, the issue of Catholicism is front and center as it has not been in more than four decades.

Questions for reporters
Will Kerry draw Catholic voters because of his Catholicism?
Do the views of Catholic voters differ in significant ways from those of non-Catholic voters?
Will pronouncements from the bishops help or hurt Kerry? What will be the impact if bishops take a hard line against Kerry?
Would Pope John Paul II speak about the campaign?
Will Bush's alliance with the "religious right" hurt his standing with Catholics? What are Catholic attitudes toward Bush? Do they differ from the wider public?
Many experts say Catholic voters are politically "homeless" because Republicans address their moral concerns and Democrats address their social concerns, but neither do both. Is this a factor, and how?
How does the abortion issue affect Catholic voting behavior?
What could be the impact of the Massachusetts approach to gay marriage on Kerry's candidacy? Does this issue have traction with Catholic voters more or less than with others?
How has the Catholic sexual abuse scandal and the declining prestige of the bishops affected the race? What are the risks to Kerry if he tries to address the scandal?
Do Catholic women show different voting patterns from Catholic men?

Click the map for interview sources in your state and region

National sources

• David Leege is an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame who lives much of the year in Arizona. Leege is a leading expert on Catholic voting patterns. He presented a paper in 2000 for the American Catholics in the Public Square initiative that parsed the state of American Catholic voters. Contact 520-399-9874, David.C.Leege.1@nd.edu.
• John Green is a professor of political science and director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron in Ohio. Green is a leading expert on trends in religion and politics. Contact 330-972-5182, green@uakron.edu.
• James Matthew Wilson is a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University who specializes in Catholics and politics. Contact 214-768-4054, jmwilson@mail.smu.edu.
• Michele Dillon is an associate professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire in Durham. She has written on the issue of abortion and Catholics and on the connection between Catholic identity and behavior. She is the author of Catholic Identity: Balancing Reason, Faith, and Power (Cambridge University Press, 1999). Contact 603-862-1859, michele.dillon@unh.edu.
• Michael Horan is a theologian at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles who can relate Catholic beliefs to Catholic practice, particularly in the political realm. Horan says hard-line tactics by bishops to deny communion to politicians who support abortion rights can backfire. Contact 310-338-2755, mhoran@lmu.edu.
• David J. O'Brien is a professor of Catholic studies at College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Mass. He has written and commented widely about Catholics and politics. Contact 508-793-2775, dobrien@holycross.edu.
• Mary C. Segers is a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark, N.J. She is active in lay Catholic circles and widely quoted on issues of feminism and abortion. Contact 973-353-5591, segers@andromeda.rutgers.edu.
• Robert P. George is a professor of politics and director of the James Madison Program in American Ideals and Institutions at Princeton University. He is a widely cited voice for orthodox Catholicism and co-authored a National Review article in support of Archbishop Raymond L. Burke's warning last year that Catholic politicians who support abortion rights would be refused communion. Contact 609-258-6333, rgeorge@princeton.edu.
• Clyde Wilcox is a professor of government at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. He specializes in electoral behavior and public opinion and can comment on the Catholic vote. Contact 202-687-5273, wilcoxc@georgetown.edu.
• William V. D'Antonio is an adjunct professor of sociology at Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. He is a leading analyst of the changing roles of Catholic laity in society and politics. D'Antonio is the editor of Laity: American and Catholic, Transforming the Church (Sheed and Ward, 1996). Contact 202-319-5911, dantonio@cua.edu.

Background

A HISTORY OF CATHOLICS AND THE PRESIDENCY
The first Catholic candidate for president was the Democratic governor of New York, Alfred E. Smith, who ran in 1928 and was soundly beaten by Herbert Hoover after a campaign that prompted harsh attacks against Smith for his Catholic faith. Smith's nomination was a watershed, a sign that an immigrant community had emerged from its isolation, as the Jesuit and political scientist, the Rev. Thomas Reese wrote in a November 1996 article in America magazine. But Smith's loss was also a setback for the Catholic community, and no Catholic emerged as a candidate for another three decades.

In 1960, a young Catholic senator from Massachusetts, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, secured the Democratic nomination to run against Richard M. Nixon. Kennedy still had to face down the specter of anti-Catholicism. In a speech to a gathering of Protestant pastors in Houston, Kennedy famously distanced himself from Rome, saying, "I do not speak for my church on public matters - and the church does not speak for me."

Kennedy defeated Nixon by just 100,000 votes, thanks to the support of 78 percent of his fellow Catholics, including many of the clergy and hierarchy. But some experts estimate that he lost at least 500,000 votes because of his affiliation with Roman Catholicism. After Kennedy, three Catholics were nominated for vice president in the next three election cycles: Republican William Miller in 1964, Democrat Edmund Muskie in 1968 and Democrat Sargent Shriver in 1972.

The social, religious and political landscape changed quickly during those years, and it became unlikely, as the 40-year gap until Kerry's success has shown, that another Catholic would be nominated for the presidency.

Scholars cite two main factors:

One, the Second Vatican Council of the 1960s revamped Catholicism and empowered lay people just as the tumultuous Vietnam era produced John Kerry, who was both a war hero and an anti-war protester. After the 1960s, lay Catholics simply did not attend church or follow their bishops the way they used to. Part of the evolution, scholars say, was due to assimilation into the wider American society, and part of it was due to a decline in all institutions during this period.

Assimilation was political as well as economic and social. Catholics who were once solidly blue-collar Democrats increasingly showed their willingness to vote for Republicans. Republicans also have made missteps. The controversy over the appointment of the first Catholic chaplain to the House of Representatives in 2000 did not cast the GOP leadership in a favorable light with Catholics. Likewise, Bush's campaign address in 2000 at Bob Jones University drew fire because of the anti-Catholic views of the fundamentalist South Carolina school.

The real changeover for Catholics came with the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision legalizing abortion. Lay Catholics - and Catholic politicians - increasingly began to support abortion rights, while the bishops, especially under the pontificate of Pope John Paul II (elected in 1978), became increasingly active in opposing them. Although Catholic politicians once worried about a Protestant backlash, they now worry about internal opposition.

Since Roe vs. Wade, the only Catholic on a major-party ticket was Democrat Geraldine Ferraro of New York in1984, who was drawn into a widely covered dispute with the late New York Cardinal John O'Connor. In 1990 O'Connor wrote that Catholics who opposed the Church's teachings on abortion "must be warned that they are at a risk of excommunication. If such actions persist, bishops may consider excommunication the only option."

The conflicts prompted New York Gov. Mario Cuomo - another Catholic politician, and one-time presidential contender - to address the issue in a famous 1984 speech at Notre Dame University titled "Religious Belief and Public Morality: A Catholic Governor's Perspective."

The disputes have not ceased. Catholic politicians who support abortion rights, for example, are routinely denied access to church property or barred from delivering commencement addresses at Catholic schools.

Concerned about Catholic politicians who Pope John Paul II believed did not heed Catholic teachings on key issues, the Vatican in January 2003 issued a document aimed at setting forth principles that Catholics politicians should follow and guidelines for bishops enforcing them. (Read an Associated Press story posted by Beliefnet.) The document, a "Doctrinal Note on Some Questions Regarding the Participation of Catholics in Political Life," covers a range of hot-button issues, from gay marriage to abortion to cloning and euthanasia. After the document came out, Kerry cited church-state separation as his reasons for following his own conscience on such matters: "As a Catholic, I have enormous respect for the words and teachings of the Vatican, but as a public servant, I've never forgotten the lasting legacy of President Kennedy, who made clear that in accordance with the separation of church and state, no elected official should be 'limited or conditioned by any religious oath, ritual or obligation.'"

(Reporters should also note that starting in March and running throughout the rest of the year the bishops of the United States will travel to Rome in 13 regional groups for five-yearly meetings with Vatican officials and Pope John Paul. Each of these meetings will culminate with a public address by the pontiff to the bishops. In the talk the pope will usually cite various concerns, which often touch on public policy issues relevant to the campaigns.)

The bishops of the United States last fall decided to write their own document that would attempt to adapt the Vatican document to the American political context. The hierarchy formed an ad hoc committee, led by Bishop John H. Ricard of Pensacola, Fla., to write the document. Although it might not be ready until after the election, at the hierarchy's meeting last November, Ricard read the bishops a statement outlining the aims of the coming document.

COMMUNION/BISHOPS' TREATMENT OF KERRY

With Kerry's emergence, however, the landscape has changed dramatically. He is by far the most prominent Catholic politician in the country. Experts say that because his presidential candidacy comes at a time when so many issues are causing controversies - school vouchers, gay marriage, confirmation battles over conservative Catholic judicial nominees such as Miguel Estrada and ensuing charges of anti-Catholicism - his expected nomination could lead to a showdown with the hierarchy, and between liberal and conservative Catholics, unlike anything seen before. Several bishops have already directly challenged Kerry, along with other Catholic politicians, as the bishops' ad hoc committee develops its guidelines. Most prominent among the prelates is Archbishop Raymond L. Burke - who, late last year while still bishop of La Crosse, Wis., wrote to Catholic politicians who support abortion rights, warning them they would be refused communion. In January 2004, after his appointment as archbishop of St. Louis, Burke reiterated his stance and said he would extend the ban to include Kerry, should the candidate come to Missouri. Read a Jan. 31, 2004, St. Louis Post-Dispatch story on the issue.

Others bishops have issued similar warnings, including Sacramento Bishop William K. Weigand and New Orleans Archbishop Alfred Hughes. See a Jan. 14, 2004, Clarion Herald story by Hughes.

The leader of Kerry's Boston diocese, Archbishop Sean O'Malley, has urged Catholic elected officials who support abortion rights to abstain voluntarily from communion, but he has not banned priests from giving it.

The National Catholic Reporter, a top Catholic weekly newspaper, has several stories on the tactic by some bishops to withhold communion from abortion-rights politicians, including one in the Feb. 13 edition.

POLLS AND SURVEYS
• The Le Moyne College/Zogby International Contemporary Catholic Trends poll tracks Catholic attitudes on a range of issues. Read the summary of a February 2004 survey tracking Catholic voters' views of Bush.
• Read the three-part Catholic Voter Project, which explores the mind of the Catholic voter and the Catholic vote in America. It was commissioned by Crisis Magazine and done by QEV Analytics, a Washington polling group. Crisis Magazine represents the conservative voice of the Catholic laity.
• For the liberal side, Catholicvote.net, sponsored by Catholics for a Free Choice, an abortion rights group, posted its report, "Beyond the Spin," with information about party identification and issues important to Catholic voters.
• Read a July 24, 2003, survey on Religion and Politics from the Pew Research Center and the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.
• Experts caution that it is important to separate the opinions of Catholics of European ancestry from those of Latino Catholics, a growing bloc that may account for one in five of the nation's Catholic community. Latinos tend to be socially conservative but more politically liberal than their Anglo counterparts. Two reports can help illuminate these issues. Read a 2003 report from the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life project at the Institute for Latino Studies at the University of Notre Dame, which examines the impact of religion on political and civic engagement in the Hispanic community and includes information on political party identification and religious beliefs. And read the 2002 National Survey of Latinos, sponsored by the Pew Hispanic Center and Kaiser Family Foundation, which looked at issues of identity, assimilation, discrimination and government, among others.
• See a chart of voters by religious preference, 1948-2002, from the National Election Studies at the University of Michigan.
• Read the exit poll results from the 2000 election, including questions about religion, posted at Beliefnet.com.
• Read a survey called Political Preferences of American Catholics at the Time of Election 2000 from the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University.

OTHER BACKGROUND
• Read an April 5, 2004, Time magazine story about Kerry's Catholicism.
• Read a May 1, 2004, Peter Steinfels column in the New York Times about the complexities of judging politicians' faith and morals.
• Read a May 2, 2004, Los Angeles Times story (requires free registration) about the Catholic vote in the presidential election.
• Read an April 2, 2004, New York Times story about Catholic Church hierarchy's response to Kerry's candidacy.
• Read an April 11, 2004, Boston Globe article about Kerry's communion debate in Massachusetts:
• Read an April 23, 2004, Catholic News Service interview about Catholic politicians and communion with Bishop Wilton Grgeory, president of the U.S. Bishops Conference.
• Read an April 27, 2004, Catholic News Service interview with Washington Cardinal Theodore McCarrick about Catholic politicans and communion.
• Today's political landscape is complex when it comes to Catholics. For example, the pope was perhaps the most powerful religious voice denouncing the U.S. invasion of Iraq, yet many Catholics agree with Bush on the invasion. Likewise, while Democrats are against taxpayer-funded vouchers for private and parochial - including Catholic - schools, many Catholics support them, as does Bush. Read an Associated Press story posted at CNN.com.
• Every four years ahead of national elections, the Catholic hierarchy publishes a statement of principles and guidelines for Catholic voters. The latest was issued in October 2003 and is called "Faithful Citizenship: A Catholic Call to Political Responsibility." The 8,500-word document calls on the Catholic Church to be "engaged, but not used" in the political process.
• This chart documents the shifts in Catholic voting patterns in the presidential elections since 1980.

*Bush also lost the popular vote narrowly, but won the White House in the Electoral College.
SOURCE: Catholic News Service and Voter News Service exit polls