ELECTIONS
2006
Will Catholics swing back to the Democrats?
In 2004 Catholic
voters did what not long before would have been considered political heresy:
They supported a Republican for president over a Democrat, and an evangelical
Protestant, no less, over the first Catholic presidential nominee since John
F. Kennedy in 1960. Moreover, Catholics' preference for George W. Bush over
John Kerry - 52 percent to 47 percent -- was bigger in key electoral states,
such as Florida and Ohio, which have large Catholic populations and provided
the Electoral College margin for Bush's victory.
To many, the 2004
election signaled a fundamental realignment in national politics. But now, Catholics
appear to be swinging back to their traditional home in the Democratic Party.
A Gallup Poll in June 2006 showed Catholics backing Democrats by an 11-point
margin, reinforcing the view of Catholics as the ultimate "swing vote"
among American religious blocs.
Experts say that
is an ominous sign for the GOP. With the nation closely divided and control
of Congress in the balance, pundits say the results of the November 2006 elections
could hinge on which way the Catholic vote swings. Here's why Catholics are
worth watching more than ever:
• With nearly
70 million baptized members, American Catholics are the largest denomination
in the United States and the largest religious voting bloc, at 27 percent of
the electorate.
• Catholics
vote at a higher rate than most other religious groups and a slightly higher
rate (by 4 percentage points) than Protestants, according to the late William
B. Prendergast, author of The Catholic Voter in American Politics: The Passing
of the Democratic Monolith (Georgetown University Press, 1999).
• Catholics
are concentrated in the states with the most electoral votes - California, New
York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan,
for example. That gives them political clout in Congress and in presidential
politics.
• American
Catholicism is hardly monolithic, with the most significant fault line between
the Europe-based ethnic communities that have long predominated - the Irish
and Italians and Eastern Europeans, for example - and the Latinos, who are becoming
the church's leading demographic. But when both those groups move in the same
direction -- as experts say they may do in 2006, though often for different
reasons - then the Catholic vote becomes especially powerful.
Why it matters
Control of the
110th Congress will go a long way toward determining the nation's course on
Iraq, judicial appointments, the war on terror, abortion rights and a host of
other issues that have sharply divided the country. Moreover, experts say control
of Congress will be a critical factor in the 2008 presidential campaign. If
Democrats gain a majority in one or both houses, they will be able to counter
some of Bush's agenda while proposing their own. But they will also be held
responsible by the public for their record. If the GOP retains control of Congress,
however, the Republican Party's track record would be held up for intense scrutiny.
Either scenario would have an impact on the presidential fortunes of the eventual
nominees in each party, experts say.
Issues to watch
Political experts
say that Catholic voters have assimilated to the point that they tend to be
governed in their voting preferences by the same pocketbook and security issues
that affect all voters. But there are at least two hot-button issues that can
have a larger impact on Catholic opinions than they would on other religious
communities: immigration and abortion. (A ban on gay marriage, which the Catholic
bishops also strongly back, is likely to have less impact as an issue, experts
say.)
IMMIGRATION The debate
over illegal immigration, which sparked massive street demonstrations earlier
in the year, led by the predominantly Catholic Latino community, is a minefield
for Republicans. Experts say the GOP, which has set the legislative agenda in
both houses of Congress, has tended to focus on the law-and-order aspects of
the issue. Catholic leaders have emphasized humanitarian concerns and offering
illegal immigrants a chance to become citizens or guest workers. Some bishops
have vowed civil disobedience if some of the stricter Republican proposals become
law.
With Latinos making
up a large and growing segment of the Catholic community, immigration is considered
a linchpin issue for the Catholic vote. See this ReligionLink edition, "Religion
informs immigration debate," updated as of May 2006.
ABORTION Abortion
is always a contentious political issue, but it is especially so for Catholic
politicians who support the right to an abortion, which church leaders strongly
oppose. The split between some Catholic pols and prelates became a showdown
during the 2004 campaign, with several bishops threatening to withhold communion
from Catholic elected officials who support abortion rights. While the majority
of the hierarchy did not take such a hard-line stance, the so-called "wafer
war" did prompt developments that will likely have an impact:
• The Democratic Party, along with religious progressives, has consciously
sought to burnish its image as a "faith-friendly" party. Democratic
leaders hope to show voters that Republicans do not have a monopoly on religious
values, and they have gone so far as to back several Democratic candidates who
favor limiting abortion rights. Most notable among these is Robert Casey Jr.,
who is mounting a strong challenge in the Pennsylvania Senate race to fellow
Catholic and incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum.
• In February 2006, a coalition of 55 Catholic Democrats in the House,
most of them abortion rights supporters, released a "Catholic
Statement of Principles" that lays out how their faith informs their
political choices. They argued that those choices conform to Catholic social
teachings.
• On March 10, 2006, Catholic leaders responded with a "Statement
on Responsibilities of Catholics in Public Life" that welcomed the
Democrats' document but set forth challenges to the Democrats' positions on
abortion and related moral issues. The bishops also referred the Catholic politicians
to an earlier statement from the hierarchy, titled "Catholics
in Political Life," which the bishops adopted in June 2004 at the height
of the Kerry-Bush campaign.
• In June 2006 in Los Angeles, Cardinal Theodore E. McCarrick, now retired
as archbishop of Washington but then head of the task force, gave a
report on the progress of the Task Force on Catholic Bishops and Catholic
Politicians, the ad hoc bishops committee that produced the 2004 statement on
"Catholics in Political Life." Because the controversy continued after
the 2004 vote, the task force continued to produce initiatives to try to make
its views known with the public and politicians. At the bishops meeting, McCarrick
detailed his views in subsequent
reports and in this Catholic
News Service story.
• The South Dakota Legislature in February 2006 acted to make it a felony
to perform an abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. (Read a Feb.
23, 2006, Washington Post article about the legislation). The only
exception was to save the life of the mother. The law is the most far-reaching
ban ever enacted by a state legislature and was designed as a direct challenge
to the Supreme Court's 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion. Some
abortion opponents worry, though, that the ban is so sweeping that a court challenge
of it might actually result in the Supreme Court, even with two new conservative
Catholic justices on the bench, reiterating the right to an abortion? Experts
say the coming court challenge has jumbled the long-standing political dynamic
of abortion politics and has also focused public attention on the importance
of judicial nominations.
Several previous
editions of ReligionLink may be helpful in exploring these and related issues:
• See
this Oct. 24, 2005, ReligionLink "Guide
to covering abortion issues" for an overview and resources.
• See
this May 1, 2006, ReligionLink edition about the resurgent "Religious
Left."
• See
this May 3, 2004, ReligionLink edition, "Kerry,
Catholics and the White House," for more background on the history
of Catholics in national politics.
Click
the map for interview sources
in your state and region
National sources
• John J.
DiIulio Jr. is the Frederic Fox Leadership Professor of Politics, Religion and
Civil Society in the political science department at the University of Pennsylvania.
He is a Catholic and longtime Democrat who directed the Bush administration's
faith-based program in 2001. He writes and comments extensively on Catholics
in political life. Contact 215-746-7121.
• Jim Towey is a Catholic who succeeded DiIulio as head of the White House’s
faith-based program, serving as director until he left that post to become the
president
of Saint Vincent College in Latrobe, Pa., in July 2006. Contact through the
office of the president at 724-532-2271. On Aug. 3, 2006, President Bush appointed
Jay Hein, president of the Sagamore
Institute for Policy Research in Indianapolis, as Towey’s successor
• Timothy P. Muldoon is director of The Church in the 21st Century Center
at Boston College, which has hosted a number of seminars on Catholics in public
life. Contact 617-552-8258, muldoont@bc.edu.
• John K. White is a political science professor and fellow at the Life
Cycle Institute at Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. He has
argued that the most important indicator in voting preferences is the frequency
of church attendance, rather than denominational affiliation. Contact 202-319-5999,
white@cua.edu.
• The Rev. Thomas J. Reese is a Jesuit priest and former editor of America
magazine who writes and comments widely on Catholics and politics. Reese has
advanced degrees in political science and used to lobby Congress on tax reform
issues. As of July 2006 he returned to the Woodstock
Theological Center at Georgetown University. Contact 202-687-3532, TR89@georgetown.edu.
• David Leege is an emeritus professor of political science at Notre Dame
University and spends much of the year in Arizona. Leege is a leading expert
on Catholic voting patterns. Contact 520-399-9874, David.C.Leege.1@nd.edu.
• John Green is a professor of political science and director of the Ray
C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron in Ohio.
He is also a senior fellow in religion and American politics at the Pew Forum
on Religion and Public Life. Green is one of the foremost experts on religion
and politics. Contact 330-972-5182, green@uakron.edu.
• Mary Jo Weaver is an emeritus professor of religious studies at Indiana
University, Bloomington. She has written on American Catholics in the 20th century,
with a focus on the conservative strain among American Catholics. Contact 812-855-2011,
weaverm@indiana.edu.
• J. Matthew Wilson is a political science professor at Southern Methodist
University in Dallas who specializes in Catholics and politics. Contact 214-768-4054,
jmwilson@mail.smu.edu.
• Michele Dillon is a sociology professor at the University of New Hampshire
in Durham. She has written on the issue of abortion and Catholics, and on the
connection between Catholic identity and behavior. She wrote Catholic Identity:
Balancing Reason, Faith and Power (Cambridge University Press, 1999). Contact
603-862-2925, michele.dillon@unh.edu.
• Michael Horan is a theologian at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles
who can relate Catholic beliefs to Catholic practice, particularly in the political
realm. Horan believes hard-line tactics by bishops to deny communion to abortion
rights politicians can backfire. Contact 310-338-2755, mhoran@lmu.edu.
• David J. O'Brien is a professor of Catholic studies at the College of
the Holy Cross in Worcester, Mass. He has written and commented widely about
Catholics and politics. Contact 508-793-2775, dobrien@holycross.edu.
• Mary C. Segers is a professor of political science at Rutgers University
in Newark, N.J. She is active in lay Catholic circles and is widely quoted on
issues of feminism and abortion. Contact 973-353-5591, segers@andromeda.rutgers.edu.
• Robert P. George is a professor of politics and director of the James
Madison Program in American Ideals and Institutions at Princeton University
in New Jersey. He is a widely cited voice for orthodox Catholicism and co-authored
a Jan.
29, 2004, National Review article in support of St. Louis Archbishop
Raymond Burke's announcement that year that Catholic politicians who back abortion
rights should be denied communion. Contact 609-258-3270, rgeorge@princeton.edu.
• Clyde
Wilcox is a government professor at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.
He specializes in electoral behavior and public opinion and can comment on the
Catholic vote. Contact 202-687-5273, wilcoxc@georgetown.edu.
• William V. D'Antonio is an adjunct professor of sociology at Catholic
University of America in Washington. He is a leading analyst of the changing
roles of Catholic laity in society and politics. D'Antonio is the co-author
of Laity: American and Catholic, Transforming the Church (Sheed and Ward,
1996). Contact 202-319-5911, dantonio@cua.edu.
POLITICAL
PARTIES
REPUBLICANS • The GOP has made a strong push to draw Catholic voters. The
Republican National Committee has a "Catholic
Team" designed to recruit Catholics voters. The mission statement of
the GOP Catholic Team says: "The Republican Party makes it possible for
Catholics to uphold both the culture of life and social justice in a way that
the Democrat platform does not." The RNC point man for the Catholic Team
is Martin Gillespie. Contact 202-863-8600, catholics@gop.com.
Many state and local Republican Party organizations have similar Catholic outreach
programs.
• In 2004, political conservatives launched another Republican-backed initiative
to attract Catholics:
a National Catholic Prayer Breakfast, designed as an alternative to the
traditional National Prayer Breakfast, which has a largely evangelical Protestant
character. The National Catholic Prayer Breakfast has become a premier event
for Republican leaders, and President Bush addressed
the gathering on April 7, 2006.
DEMOCRATS
• Democrats
have tried to counter the GOP's tactics in an effort to close the so-called
"God gap," an explanation given for the fact that religiously committed
voters are more frequently aligned with the Republican Party. The Democratic
National Committee has tried to present the party as friendly to a range
of faiths and has been planning a specific outreach to Catholic voters, a community
the Democrats could once take for granted. In the meantime, in September 2006,
former Democratic Party Chairman David Wilhelm launched an effort called Faithful
Democrats, billed as "an online community of Christian Democrats."
A story in USA Today
described the site, which is not formally affiliated with the DNC, as "a
collection of blogs, theological essays and candidate features" that is
"designed to rally Christian Democrats and attract socially moderate evangelicals."
Currently, the DNC has a program specifically designed to reach out to religious
communities. Leslie Brown is coordinator of the national committee's "faith
in action" effort. Contact through Amaya Smith, the DNC press liaison for
religious outreach, at 202-863-8110 or 202-863-8000.
Background
POLLS
AND SURVEYS
• Read the Pew Hispanic Center’s 2006
National Survey of Latinos, released July 13.
• Read a July 6, 2006, backgrounder from the Pew Research Center titled
"Do the
Democrats Have a 'God Problem'? How Public Perceptions May Spell Trouble for
the Party." The backgrounder makes use of material from a number of Pew
surveys. Contact one of the report's authors, Gregory A. Smith of the Pew Forum
on Religion and Public Life, at 202-419-4550, gsmith@pewforum.org.
• A Gallup Poll analysis
from June 21, 2006, (subscription required) shows Catholic voters trending
toward Democrats in the midterm elections by about 11 points over Republicans,
the same gap as the national average. A May 12, 2006, poll also showed that
about three in 10 Americans hold an unfavorable view of Catholicism.
• A Los
Angeles Times/Bloomberg
poll conducted in late June 2006 about voter views on the religious affiliations
of possible presidential candidates showed that 10 percent of respondents would
not vote for a candidate who was Roman Catholic. Yet that figure is much lower
than the 21 percent who said they would not vote for an evangelical Protestant,
or the 37 percent who would not vote for a Mormon. Experts say that indicates
the anti-Catholic bias that was once widespread has diminished sharply.
• An August 2005 Pew Forum poll, "Religion
a Strength and Weakness for Both Parties," examines the attitudes of various
religious groups, including Catholics, toward politics and salient issues.
• The Center for
Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University in Washington
conducts an annual poll of U.S. Catholics that includes questions on politics.
CARA analysts examined the 2004
Catholic vote in this PDF file. An April
2004 analysis (also in a PDF format) shows that 30.5 percent of Catholics
said they usually think of themselves as Republicans, 38.5 percent as Democrats
and 21.8 percent as independents. See also an accompanying news
release for an overview. CARA also has a breakdown
of Catholic voting patterns in every presidential vote since 1952. Contact
CARA research associate Paul M. Perl, pmp2@georgetown.edu, or Mark M. Gray,
202-687-1365, mmg34@georgetown.edu.
• See
a chart of 2004
exit polls at the CNN web site that shows the Catholic vote results for
each candidate and can be broken down by state.
• See
a Nov. 9, 2004, Catholic News Service story, "End
of 'Catholic vote'? Other categories may predict election better," which
argues that the rate of church attendance may be a better predictor of voting
preferences than a voter's denomination. CNS also has an online
archive of stories related to Catholics and the 2004 campaign.
ARTICLES
• Read "States
probe limits of abortion policy," a June 22, 2006, analysis of the
South Dakota law and other developments from Stateline.org.
• Read two stories on Catholics and politics from the June 2006 edition
of Sojourners magazine. One is "Who
Owns The 'Catholic Vote'?" by Maurice Timothy Reidy, an associate editor
for the Catholic periodical Commonweal.
The other is "A
Thorn in Both Their Sides" by Washington Post columnist E.J.
Dionne Jr.
• Read "Democrats
seek to woo Catholics back to the fold," a June 16, 2006, story from
the National Catholic Reporter by Washington correspondent Joe Feuerherd.
• Read "U.S.
bishops issue strong retort to Catholic Democrats' conscience statement,"
a March 26, 2006, story in the popular Catholic weekly, Our Sunday Visitor.
• Read
a March 24, 2006, Commonweal article, "The
Catholic Voter: A Description with Recommendations," by John J. DiIulio
Jr. DiIulio is a former director of the White House Office of Faith-Based and
Community Initiatives and now teaches in the political science department at
the University of Pennsylvania. He has also served on the domestic policy steering
committee of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops. This essay was
adapted from a more
detailed report available at the web site of the Program for Research on
Religion and Urban Civil Society.
OTHER
RESOURCES
• See a transcript of "Religion,
Moral Values and the Democratic Party," a May 22, 2006, event sponsored
by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. White Catholics may be key for
Democrats, according to William A. Galston, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
• View the proceedings of a Feb. 27, 2006, panel at Boston College titled
"Catholic
Politicians in the U.S.: Their Faith and Public Policy." The panel
was convened under the auspices of the college's Church in the 21st Century
Center program and featured Tim Russert, managing editor and moderator of Meet
the Press and political analyst for NBC Nightly News and the Today
show; James Carville, CNN political commentator and former senior political
adviser to President Clinton; E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post columnist
and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; Edward W. Gillespie, founder
and co-chairman of Quinn Gillespie & Associates and chairman of the 2004
Republican National Committee and Peggy Noonan, best-selling political author
and contributing editor to The Wall Street Journal.
• Americans
for Religious Liberty is an interest group in Silver Spring, Md., that monitors
issues of the separation of church and state. Albert J. Menendez, the ARL research
director, has analyzed the religious makeup of each Congress since 1972. Catholics
have long been the largest denominational bloc, but Menendez's tally lists 154
Catholics in the current Congress, an all-time high. Also, while Democrats still
hold an 87-67 edge over Republicans among Catholic representatives, the GOP
has been gaining in recent years. Whereas Catholic representatives, like voters,
were once predominantly Democrats, today about one-quarter of Republican members
are Catholic, compared with about one-third of Democrats. See a PDF file of
the religious affiliations
of the current Congress. Contact Menendez at 301-260-2988, info@arlinc.org.
• Read the three-part Catholic
Voter Project, which explores the mind of the Catholic voters and their
votes in America. It was commissioned by Crisis
Magazine and done by QEV Analytics, a Washington polling group. Crisis
Magazine is representative of a politically conservative wing of Catholicism.
• Read stories and analysis at Catholicvote.net,
sponsored by Catholics for a Free Choice, an abortion rights group. Catholicvote.net
is representative of a politically liberal wing of Catholicism.
• For Latino Catholic views, experts caution that it is important to separate
out the opinions of Catholics of European ancestry from those of Latinos, a
growing bloc that may account for one in five of the nation's Catholic community.
Latinos tend to be conservative on social issues, but more liberal than their
Anglo counterparts on other ones. Read a 2003
report from the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life Project at the
Institute for Latino Studies at the University of Notre Dame, which examines
the impact of religion on political and civic engagement in the Hispanic community
and includes information on political party identification and religious beliefs.
