NOV. 8, 2006

ELECTIONS 2006
The outlook for religion in politics

The Democratic takeover of Congress heralds a new dynamic in the long-standing tug-of-war over religion and politics in public life. For years, Republicans have projected their agenda through the lens of religious views, which tended to mirror the stands of Christian conservatives. That agenda included policies on homosexuality, stem cell research, abortion, judicial appointments, the environment, poverty, faith-based programs, war and peace, immigration and the economy and taxes.

Now, with a new and large majority in the House and control of the Senate, Democrats have a chance to cast these issues through their own faith-based framework, if they so choose. That push could significantly alter the nation's policies on many of these issues, particularly if the Democrats win the final seats in the Senate, which holds veto power over judicial nominations. Conversely, experts say, the Democratic Party could choose to differentiate itself from the Republicans by reducing the role of religion in politics.

The GOP's embrace of religion was central to its claims to restore integrity and values to public life. Yet the recent spate of scandals among the party and its allies may have finally undercut the party's appeal, as voters across the board rated corruption and ethics as a primary factor in their Election Day decisions. The setback for the GOP, given its embrace of faith-based politics, also may hurt the power of any religious rhetoric in the public square.

ReligionLink provides a guide to the impact of the Nov. 7 vote on issues linked to religion and ethics in public life. Each issue of ReligionLink cited below includes national and religion interview sources, background and Web links.

Why it matters

The nexus of religion and politics is the most persistent and controversial storyline in American public life since Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980 with massive support from the newly mobilized “religious right.” Democratic victories in the 2006 midterm elections may open a new era by redefining the relationship between religious faith and political policies and campaigns.

Jump to:
The political outlook
    • The end of 'theocracy'?
    • The rise of hypocrisy?
    • A shift among evangelicals?
    • The rise of the 'religious left'?
    • Is the 'culture war' over?
    • A separation of pulpit and politics?

The policy outlook
    • Abortion
    • War and peace
    • Gay rights
    • Stem cell research
    • Church / state
    • For richer and poorer
    • Minimum wage
    • Immigration
    • Marijuana
    • Environmentalism

Polls and research
    • National polls
    • Religion and politics
    • Religious identification surveys
    • Academic and nonprofit research centers
    • State polls
    • Standard-setting associations for polling

The political outlook

The 2006 midterm election results are as much a statement about culture as they are about specific policy issues. Many recent surveys have indicated that Americans are growing uneasy with the mixture of faith and politics. In light of the Nov. 7 results, here are several areas for reporters to explore:

THE END OF 'THEOCRACY'?

The high profile of Christians in electoral politics, and in particular during the Republican ascendancy, led a number of pundits and authors to wonder and worry whether America were approaching a theocratic style of governance. The books included American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century (Viking, 2005) by Kevin Phillips; The Baptizing of America: The Religious Right’s Plans for the Rest of Us (Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2006) by Rabbi James Rudin; and Kingdom Coming: The Rise of Christian Nationalism (W.W. Norton, 2006) by Michelle Goldberg. Those arguments also produced an equally vigorous reaction by those who said such talk was nonsense. Given Tuesday’s election results, where will the debate go from here?
• Read an essay, “Theocracy, Theocracy, Theocracy,” in the August/September edition of the journal First Things.
• Read a Christianity Today editorial, “Theocracy, Anyone?” posted on Nov. 6, 2006.
• See an essay by Martin E. Marty, “Theocratic Tendencies,” in the Oct. 30, 2006, edition of the online journal Sightings.

THE RISE OF HYPOCRISY?

The arrival of conservative Christian Republicans in Washington, from the Congress to the White House, was billed by the GOP as a return to integrity in public life. Yet a series of scandals and misdeeds by Republican leaders, their allies and some Democrats, along with doubts about the Bush administration’s claims regarding the invasion and war in Iraq, have left many Americans — both believers and nonbelievers — wondering about any public figure who assumes the mantle of religious virtue. The scandals included the influence peddling of lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which led to the downfall of several Republican congressmen; the House page scandal involving former Republican Rep. Mark Foley; and the sex-and-drug scandal that enveloped prominent evangelist Ted Haggard the week before the election. Surveys have shown that voters are inclined to want government officials who profess religious faith, but the latest spate of scandals shows that integrity may be far more important than specific beliefs.
• Read a Nov. 3, 2006, Associated Press story, “Haggard Case Fuels Debate Over Hypocrisy,” posted at The Washington Post.
• A survey released Sept. 20, 2006, by the Center for American Values found that when Americans are asked what it means to “vote their values,” the most common answer – given by 39 percent of respondents – is that it means to consider “the honesty, integrity and responsibility of the candidate.”
• See a Sept. 18, 2006, edition of ReligionLink, “Religion and political corruption.”
• Read a Nov. 8, 2006, CNN story that identifies political corruption and ethics in government as the determining factor for many voters.

A SHIFT AMONG EVANGELICALS?

Evangelical Christians have been the backbone of the so-called “religious right” since conservative Christians emerged as a political force in national politics in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Some experts wonder whether the political troubles of President Bush, an evangelical favorite, and the Republican Party as a whole will have repercussions for conservative Christians in the public square and in the culture, where surveys show that the evangelical label is claimed by between 25 percent and 40 percent of Americans. Will Christian conservatives feel chastened by their political experience and pull back from some political engagement? Will they rally for a comeback around Bush? Will they blame him and his administration for failing to heed their agenda? Or will the religious right morph into a more bipartisan swing bloc led by evangelicals, whose political agenda and membership have diversified as their numbers have grown?

Several authors have written about the perils evangelicals face by becoming enmeshed in partisan politics, most notably David Kuo, a longtime official in the White House’s Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives, which was supposed to implement Bush’s policies of “compassionate conservatism” by funneling government money to religious groups. In Tempting Faith (Free Press, 2006), Kuo, an evangelical Christian who left the White House office disillusioned, called on Christians to take a two-year “fast” from political action.

Other books include Thy Kingdom Come: How The Religious Right Distorts the Faith and Threatens America: An Evangelical’s Lament (Basic Books, 2006) by Randall Balmer; The Myth of a Christian Nation: How the Quest for Political Power Is Destroying the Church (Zondervan, 2006) by Gregory A. Boyd; and Faith and Politics: How the ‘Moral Values’ Debate Divides America and How to Move Forward Together (Viking Adult, 2006) by former GOP Sen. John Danforth.
• Read “Blinded by Bush?” a Christianity Today interview with David Kuo, posted on Nov. 6, 2006.
• See a Nov. 13, 2006, Newsweek essay, “A New Social Gospel,” in which former Bush speechwriter and policy adviser Michael Gerson promotes an evangelical agenda freed from “the narrowness of the religious right.”
• See the Nov. 13, 2006, Newsweek cover story, “An Evangelical Identity Crisis,” about frictions among Christian conservatives over whether to stress issues of sexual behavior or social justice.
• See a July 10, 2006, edition of ReligionLink, “Evangelicals: Divisible after all?”
• See a Christianity Today editorial posted on Oct. 19, 2006, titled “Save the E-Word,” about efforts to shore up what is seen as an increasingly negative view of the “evangelical” label.

THE RISE OF THE 'RELIGIOUS LEFT'?

The religious story of the 2006 elections has been as much about the rise of the so-called “religious left” as the misfortunes of its conservative counterpart. In the wake of the Nov. 7 vote, observers are wondering what will happen now to religious progressives. Will Democrats “get religion,” as many experts and party leaders have been urging? Or will the Democratic Party see the 2006 victories as a chance to move the discussion away from religion? Will the “religious left” grow in size and influence? Or will the 2006 vote undermine some of the enthusiasm? And will believers who have been pushing the Democrats to link progressive issues to biblical teachings critique the party if it should stray from positions that liberal believers endorse?
• See a May 1, 2006, edition of ReligionLink, “The religious ‘left’ reasserts itself.”

IS THE 'CULTURE WAR' OVER?

The “culture war” has been a mainstay of American public discourse since the 1980s. In the wake of the 2006 campaigns, which featured particularly virulent attack ads, will Americans finally grow weary of these battles, or will the so-called culture war over social issues continue? Or, as some argue, was there really ever a culture war to begin with? Were the last 25 years just an unavoidable battle between the extremes of both conservatives and liberals?
• See a May 23, 2006, Pew Forum debate, “Is There a Culture War? A Dialogue on Values and American Public Life,” between two of the leading proponents of different sides on the debate, James Davison Hunter, professor of sociology and religious studies at the University of Virginia, and Alan Wolfe, professor of political science at Boston College, where he directs the Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life.

A SEPARATION OF PULPIT AND POLITICS?

The intermingling of faith and politics has led to a rise in the number of investigations into improper politicking by houses of worship. Such politicking can result in the loss of churches’ tax-exempt status, and the Internal Revenue Service has targeted liberal as well as conservative congregations. Will the 2006 midterm elections result in more IRS investigations? Will voters be turned off by the mixing of the pulpit and politics? A Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life survey released in August 2006 found that 51 percent of Americans say houses of worship should express opinions about political and social issues, while 46 percent say they should not – nearly a statistical dead heat and percentages that have changed little since the late 1950s.
• See “A reporter’s guide to voter guides,” a ReligionLink edition on the 2006 elections.
• See “The push for more – or less – politicking from churches,” a Jan. 9, 2006, ReligionLink edition.
• See ReligionLink’s “A guide to church-state experts and organizations.”

The policy outlook

Religion and ethics were critical factors in many of the political issues that voters decided on Tuesday. Just as voters cited ethics - their sense of what's right and wrong - as a critical factor in choosing candidates, ethics also helped shape decisions on government policy on issues ranging from the very public - the war and the minimum wage -- to the very personal - abortion.
• See this Washington Post roundup of the results of state ballot initiatives.

ABORTION
In the public square, opposition to abortion rights has become the litmus test for politicians who declare themselves to be religious conservatives. But the public has always taken a more nuanced view, and Tuesday's results reflected that. Not only were several abortion opponents among the Republicans who lost, but several Democratic candidates who ran on pledges to reduce access to abortions by means other than the courts were successful.

Three state ballot initiatives on abortion also were defeated, to the dismay of abortion rights opponents. In South Dakota, a ballot initiative that would have outlawed almost all abortions and would have likely been used to challenge Roe v. Wade failed by a 56-44 margin. Parental notification propositions in California and Oregon also lost.

The Democratic control of the Senate - which approves federal judicial appointments - is seen as a setback for opponents of abortion rights. Given the split in the Senate, it remains unclear whether President Bush will try to challenge Democrats by appointing strong conservatives or whether the new Democratic majority will force him to select more moderate justices.
• See a Nov. 1, 2006, ReligionLink edition on the Supreme Court and abortion. It provides resources for covering the so-called "partial-birth" abortion cases currently before the court as well as South Dakota's abortion law.
• Read an Oct. 12, 2006, Christian Science Monitor story on the South Dakota abortion vote.

WAR AND PEACE
The war in Iraq and the so-called "war on terror" became the hallmark of the Bush administration's policies and, subsequently, the root of the declining popularity of the president and the GOP. The war has raised any number of moral and ethical questions and has mobilized faith communities on both sides of the debate, and those questions figured into the calculations of many voters on Election Day.

What will the election results and the final two years of the Bush presidency mean for American policy on Iraq? For the war on terror and the debate over the use of torture? How will the Muslim community fare? What of the much-debated "just war" theory that was invoked by Christian ethicists on both sides?
• See “The torture debate: Religious opposition two years after Abu Ghraib,” an April 17, 2006, ReligionLink issue.
• See the ReligionLink archives for a range of resources on this topic.

GAY RIGHTS
The intense debate over gay rights, and more specifically same-sex marriage, has been cast as a religious and moral issue from the beginning, with Americans continuing to voice opposition to efforts to sanction marriage for gay and lesbian couples. (The public is more willing to accept civil unions.) Tuesday's election results demonstrated that gay rights are likely to continue to be a major flashpoint in the debate over religion and public policy.

Eight states had ballot questions asking voters to approve laws that would either ban same-sex marriage or define marriage as strictly a union between one man and one woman. Seven out of eight measures passed. Only in Arizona did voters defeat a measure, by a 51-49 margin, that would have defined marriage as a heterosexual union.

Democrats have been more open to promoting gay rights, however, and many courts, most recently the state Supreme Court in New Jersey, have continued to hand down rulings that expand rights for gay couples. The prospect of expanded rights for gays and lesbians could prompt Republicans and the Christian right to return to the issue as a rallying point.
• See ReligionLink's recently updated "Guide to covering same-sex marriage debates."
• See Stateline.org's Oct. 25, 2006, backgrounder on same-sex marriage. It includes a sidebar on the six state votes Tuesday and other 2006 state legislative activity.

STEM CELL RESEARCH
The battles over stem cell research and other controversial forms of biotechnology have been cast in moral, ethical and religious terms.

In Missouri, voters approved, by a 51-49 percent margin, a ballot initiative to protect the rights of scientists to conduct stem cell research and patients to receive the resulting treatments. The issue promises to remain a heated topic of public debate, however. The issue could be especially complicated for Christian conservatives because a number of conservatives from the more libertarian wing of the Republican Party have become increasingly outspoken in their support for stem cell research and other biotechnology that raises ethical red flags for many.
• See ReligionLink's Aug. 28, 2006, issue, "Can a new technique resolve the stem cell impasse?"
• See the ReligionLink archives for a range of resources on stem cell research and other biotechnology issues.
• Read an Oct. 26, 2006, Associated Press story on the Missouri vote. It's posted by msnbc.com.
• See the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life's resource page on stem cell research.

CHURCH / STATE
The Democratic control of the Senate - which approves federal judicial appointments - is seen as a setback for opponents of abortion rights. Given the split in the Senate, it remains unclear whether President Bush will try to challenge Democrats by appointing strong conservatives or whether the new Democratic majority will force him to select more moderate justices.
• See ReligionLink's "Guide to church-state experts and organizations" for an expansive list of sources around the nation, ranging from accommodationist to separationist viewpoints.
• ReligionLink's church-state archive lists editions on specific church-state issues.

FOR RICHER AND POORER
All major religious traditions teach care for the poor, and most voters say they would like the government to do more to alleviate poverty. With the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, which controls the nation's purse strings, two religious views of social justice may be ready for a showdown that could have profound implications for this prosperous nation, where one in six children and one in eight adults live in poverty. The Bush administration has championed a free-market approach to growing the economy and fighting poverty, using tax cuts for higher income brackets and faith-based policies of "compassionate conservatism" to look after the less fortunate. Those policies were driven by a religious vision growing out of Mr. Bush's Christian convictions, just as the strong opposition to those policies - especially among the so-called "religious left" - was driven by religious convictions rooted in the "social gospel" tradition.
• See the ReligionLink archives for a range of resources on these topics.

MINIMUM WAGE
Six states handily approved a hike in the minimum wage - an issue that Congress has failed to act on, leaving many workers stuck at the $5.15-an-hour rate Congress approved 10 years ago. The campaign to raise the minimum wage to what is called a "living wage" - enough to support a family above poverty level with a 40-hour workweek - has become a main battleground for those invoking religious beliefs to support government action on behalf of the increasing ranks of the working poor.
• Read a Sept. 22, 2006, Stateline.org story that calls a two-year trend of states passing minimum wage increases unprecedented. It details action in states over the last decade, including a map noting the six states voting on the issue Tuesday and all other states that have voted on it.
• Read an Aug. 28, 2006, ReligionLink issue on "living wage" campaigns that call for local and state governments to enact minimum wages that allow individuals working 40 hours a week to support their family above the poverty level.

IMMIGRATION
Immigration reform is one of the most important and contentious issues in the nation, with many religious groups and denominations rallying to the cause of immigrants, often in opposition to prevailing public sentiment. That dichotomy seemed to play out on Election Day. There were four ballot initiatives, three in Arizona and one in Colorado, related to immigration. In Arizona, voters approved a measure to make English the state's official language, and they also voted to bar illegal immigrants from receiving damages awarded in a civil action, and from participating in several state-funded education programs. Those measures are likely to be challenged in court, and the entire immigration debate promises to continue boiling across the country. That will likely have important repercussions within religious denominations that are becoming more ethnically diverse, and it could divide religious leaders from many of their congregants.
• See a May 15, 2006, issue of ReligionLink, "Religion informs immigration debate."

MARIJUANA
South Dakota narrowly voted down an initiative to legalize marijuana for medicinal purposes - an issue that several major religious denominations have supported based on compassion for people who are suffering. Colorado and Nevada voters rejected proposals to decriminalize marijuana.
• Read a June 26, 2004, Washington Post story about major Christian denominations and Jewish movements supporting marijuana use for medical reasons.
• The Interfaith Drug Policy Initiative was established in 2003 to "mobilize people of faith and religious groups behind more compassionate and less coercive alternatives" to the war on drugs. See its medical marijuana fact sheet. Its leadership council is drawn from clergy and lay members of a variety of Christian and Jewish traditions. Contact executive director Charles Thomas in Washington, D.C., at 301-270-4473.
• Read a June 13, 2005, Stateline.org commentary about the U.S. Supreme Court's 2005 decision that laws in California and 10 other states allowing medical use of marijuana are no protection against federal raids and prosecutions.

ENVIRONMENT
From global warming to creation spirituality, religion has been going green - a trend that has also begun to include many evangelicals. But the conservatives who predominate in the Christian right, the Bush administration and Congress have continued to hold sway, adopting policies that mainstream environmentalists say are seriously damaging the Earth's air, land and water. What impact will the Nov. 7 vote have on this issue? Will Democrats try to reverse Republican initiatives of recent years? Will the GOP adopt more environmentally friendly policies? And will religious conservatives continue their "green" conversion?
• See ReligionLink's Oct. 17, 2006, issue, "The evangelical divide on global warming," and a Sept. 23, 2005, edition on the religion and environment movement.

Polls and research

Polls are the raw fuel of political campaigns, and they are invaluable baselines for stories about religion and politics. Caveat emptor, however: Polls are frequently wrong or misinterpreted. Public Agenda posts “20 Questions Journalists Should Ask About Poll Results.” Here are some of the major providers of polls, surveys and data; many sites are searchable by topic:

NATIONAL POLLS
• Pew Research Center
• Barna Research Group
• The Gallup Organization (subscription required)
• Zogby International
• Quinnipiac University Polling Institute surveys residents in Connecticut, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and nationwide.
• PollingReport.com posts public opinion polls searchable by topic, including elections and religion.

RELIGION AND POLITICS
• The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life posts surveys.
• The Association of Religion Data Archives
• Center for American Values in Public Life
• American National Election Studies

RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION SURVEYS
• The Baylor Institute for Studies of Religion posts American Piety in the 21^st Century, an extensive survey of beliefs and practices that was released in 2006.
• American Religious Identification Survey of 2001 by the Graduate Center of the City University of New York
• Faith Communities Today from the Hartford Institute for Religion Research
• The 2000 Religious Congregations & Membership Study by Glenmary Research Center
• Adherents.com gathers current research from many sources.
• The 2001 American Jewish Identity Survey
• Profile of the U.S. Muslim Population from the American Religious Identification Survey of 2001
• The 2001 Mosque in America: A National Portrait report from the Council on American-Islamic Relations
• The Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University conducts social scientific research about the Roman Catholic Church.

ACADEMIC AND NONPROFIT RESEARCH CENTERS
• The Roper Center at the University of Connecticut now has online the cumulative data file for the National Opinion Research Center’s General Social Surveys since 1972. It posts polls about religious beliefs and practice.
• NORC, known as the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago
• Public Agenda
• Data on the Net from the University of California-San Diego
• Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research at the University of Michigan
• The Odum Institute for research in social science

STATE POLLS
• Mason-Dixon Polling & Research
• National Network of State Polls
• State Politics and Policy from the American Political Science Association
• Alabama: The Alabama Poll from Southern Opinion Research
• Arizona: KAET Poll
• Arizona: The Arizona Survey at Northern Arizona University
• California: Public Policy Institute of California
• Connecticut: Connecticut Polls from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
• Maryland: Maryland/Baltimore Polls
• New Jersey: New Jersey Polls from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
• New Jersey: The Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University
• New York: New York State and City polls from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
• Ohio: The Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati
• Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College Poll at Millersville University
• Rhode Island: Public Opinion Report at Brown University

STANDARD-SETTING ASSOCIATIONS FOR POLLING
• The National Council on Public Polls sets standards for polls and advises media on how to use them.
• Council of American Survey Research Organizations
• American Association for Public Opinion Research